Where We Stand
Through May 11, the valley has accumulated 226 cumulative growing degree days (base 50F), with 71 of those arriving in the past seven days alone. That's a meaningful single-week contribution — warm days reaching 76F, nights holding at 45F, and no precipitation. Bud break landed on April 4, putting us 41 days into the season and firmly in pre-bloom. The vines are moving.
The Week Ahead
The next two days carry the warmth forward, with models showing highs of 76F and 78F and no precipitation. Then the pattern shifts. Wednesday brings a drop to 58F with 0.19 inches of rain — modest, but enough to note. Thursday recovers to 66F before another softer stretch: 56F, 59F, and 62F through the weekend, with trace precipitation on Friday (0.12") and Saturday (0.02"). The back half of the week is cooler and intermittently wet, though not dramatically so. GDD accumulation will slow through that stretch, but it won't stop.
Season Context
A 226 GDD position at this point in May, coming off a week of sustained warmth and zero rainfall, reflects a season that has banked heat efficiently since early April. The pre-bloom designation matters here: the valley is at a stage where temperature consistency over the next several weeks will carry more weight than any single day's high. The mid-week cooling interrupts what has been a clean heat accumulation run, but the larger question is how the pattern holds through late May — that window will do a great deal to shape bloom timing and set. The shift in this week's forecast is the first real disruption of the season's early momentum, and what follows it is worth watching closely.